Friday, August 17, 2012

Will Falling Bond Yields Mean Higher Insurance Rates For You?


It may at first seem a little disjointed.  How could volatility and falling yields in the bond market have any effect at all on your insurance rates?  I mean weather yeah, bad driving record yeah, but falling bond yields?  The answer lies in the way that insurance companies make a profit.  And in times of intense completion,  most of their profit comes from investment income as opposed to underwriting income.  The intense completion for your auto insurance dollars is on display on your television every day and probably in your junk email folder as well.  And this competition on pricing has put a lot of pressure on investment income.    The options in that arena these days may leave many insurance companies with no choice but to raise rates.

One very important metric that every insurance company follows very closely is called the loss ratio.  This metric has several different iterations. The easiest to understand is called the pure loss ratio.  This is simply a measure of all premiums taken in, divided by all losses paid out.  Of even more importance is a metric called the combined ratio which is all premiums taken in, divided by the sum of losses paid out plus all other expenses.  When the combined loss ratio goes over 100%, then the insurance company has lost money on their underwriting operations.  When this happens, they will need to find their profit in the income that they generate by investing your premiums until they need them to pay for losses.

Intense competition in the insurance marketplace has driven down rates steadily for many years and the combined loss ratio of many insurance companies is now up over the dreaded 100% level.  To protect themselves their choices are to cut expenses, increase investment income or increase the rates that they charge for the various insurance products that they sell.  As a rule,  insurance companies invest in very stable and safe government bonds.  But the volatility of the government bond market, along with dreadfully low yields has driven some insurance companies to invest more in corporate bonds.  The problem with this strategy is that it exposes the insurance company to debt risk if and when interest rates rise.  If we see more corporate defaults, then the insurance companies that have invested in corporate paper will suffer losses and will have to raise their rates even further.

With high quality corporate bond now yielding below a 2% return, corporate debt is no longer a viable option for helping to reduce the combined loss ratio to produce a profit for the insurance company.  This leaves insurance companies faced with the choice between reducing expenses or investing in riskier investments to chase higher yields.  If they reject these choices then they are left with one remaining option, raising rates.  When yields ran at 6% for grade A corporate bonds, then the insurance companies that took a chance on this type of debt had 4 additional points to play with on their combined loss ratio.  At 2% the margin is getting pretty thin.  Add in the risk of default by the corporations that issue these bonds and you can see the dilemma that may lead more and more insurance companies to raise their rates.  It is easy to see that while falling interest rates may be helpful to you from a mortgage or car loan standpoint, they can have a counter effect on your car insurance rates and your home insurance rates.

At Clinard Insurance Group, we insure thousands of families all across North Carolina with their auto insurance, their home insurance and life insurance as well as their business insurance needs.  If you would like to ask questions or receive help in any of these areas, I hope you will call us, toll free, at 877-687-7557.

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